Jolie Rouge


all ur parentheses Я belong to me


Russia’s Energy Minister – No Br’er Fox, don’t throw me into that Briar patch

If you remember, before the collapse of Oil Prices in 2014, the Russian Government built their entire national budget around the $80+ per barrel Oil price. In 2018, all of the sudden, they think that $80 a barrel cannot be justified. Yeah, sing me another one comrade.

What you are witnessing is masterful Kayfabe. Right now, Western Sentiment (The Face), is squarely against Russia (The Heel). Russia gets to play the reverse psychology game, by running in (even ahead of Trump) to champion a lower oil price. This is classic Sun Tzu behavior. Don’t look like you want something you want.

Thursday 2018-04-19 – Oil and Energy Sector Outlook – Bullish – Updates

The forces driving up oil, mostly OPEC and Saudi Arabia/Russia in particular, during earning’s season, have created a unique historical opportunity. The manic exuberance of investors is not yet at peek hysteria so I believe there is still money to be made in this sector. My currnet price prediction for oil is that it will end up at $81-$84 within the next 3 months, or come very close to that.

I predict there will be a couple of bumps in the road, but that the main drivers behind the rally are desperate to raise cash in advance of geopolitical instability. Russia in particular desperately needs to balance the negative effects of sanctions against them, and the US needs as many people as possible deeply invested in the petrodollar to try and stave off China’s attempts to supplant them.

I don’t know who will win this fight, China is far more cocky than it should be, inspite of the gross incompetence of American leadership, America has historically had a margin for stupidity, whether or not the US has pushed it too far, I don’t know.

I expect socialists in Venezuela to continue running their oil production into the ground due to the upward adjustment of ideologically pure administrators. PDVSA is proud of its mixture of ideology and production, and like the Soviet Union, it will be awhile before the shit results have a significant number of people turning on their representatives. I expect Western countries to continue to try to push Venezuela over the edge, but Russian and Chinese interference is a distinct possibility throughout South America.

I expect that the failures of $TSLA are also contributing to the rally in fossil fuels, while I have started to look positively on the company for the long term future, the short term chaos in production has dealt a serious blow to the electric car activists, and that kind of rhetoric is less likely to affect weak minded investors.

The Yijing says: #56 Lǚ, Itinerant troops: 1st Changing line: The wanderer is trivial and petty, chopping up his position and seizing calamities.

British Petroleum Plc, I-Ching Forecast

Accuracy Update 4/18/2018

Interestingly, Oil stalled, and BP didn’t go anywhere. Because I was unsure about the sector, I decided not to re-invest and have moved on to Service Restaurants sector. I am still keeping a close eye on the Oil sector, but it seems to be ranging for the time being. While Oil is progressing, stocks related to them such as $HP and $BP are stuggling.

Another reason I decided to leave the Oil & Energy sector for this week is that a lot of people became very positive/excited about Oil. I prefer to buy the rumor and sell the rally, once everybody starts being maximally optimistic (the Bulls win) I prefer to sell. This is I suppose, the Value Investing/Templeton approach, buy at the moment of maximum pessimism and sell at the moment of maximum optimism.

For the record, my stint from August 2017 to April 2018 in the Oil and Energy sector got me 20.1% return on my invested capital, which I am very happy with.

Oil News, Gas and Energy Sector Investing Roundup

Interesting video.

How Significant Is WTI’s Breakout?

Suggests Oil might be trading in a new range. Mostly based on past data and technical analysis. Nothing original geopolitically, member of the causationsphere, thinking that trouble in the middle east affects oil, instead of oil effecting trouble in the middle east.

The Real Worry for Oil Prices Isn’t Missiles Over Syria

Pure mindless speculation. Unoriginal in every sense. Has some decent data on Syria, Russia and Venezuela. Specifically production in Venezuela and Mexico has conveniently fallen precipitously. Production from Syria has been conveniently non-existent since 2011, most of Syria’s oil needs are being met by Iran. Russia is exporting 4.5 mbd, it has actually benefited from the tensions.