Bullish sentiment returned to $HP, and I began looking favorably again at one of my favorite companies, Helmerich and Payne. After selling off my position in $DNKN for a tidy profit, I was looking for something else to trade. $HP had been ranging the day previously, and I was unsure about my Energy perspective that day (the 17th, perhaps wrongly considering the gap up of $BP), but new reports of declining inventories, and Saudi Arabia broadening it’s target price from $80 to between $80 and $100 per barrel was worth a second look.
A problem, emotionally, that I’ve been facing is lacking confidence in trade ideas. I spent so long waiting for Oil, I allowed my worries to get the best of me and was too timid to take a risk and hold a position over Tuesday. In August I was 6 steps ahead, on Mondays I was 1 step behind. I need to learn to calibrate that to only being 1-2 steps ahead of my trade ideas.
Time will tell, tomorrow could have a black swan event, or hell, just generally bad news, and I could get my face ripped off through my ass. Ah, the life of a retail trader. I’m seriously considering getting Anton Kreil’s equities course, just to have a more solid fundamentals and macroeconomic understanding of trading. I feel unsure about my positions because I can see there are gaps in my understanding about how it all fits together. Just having an opinion on world politics, or culture, doesn’t cut it. You need to have practical understanding of market mechanics, risk management, positioning and so on. And don’t say you can get it free on the internet, you can’t. I spent 2 years researching the markets and economics before I even opened a trading account and there are still fundamental gaps.
Anyway, today WTI consolidated 3.40% gains, ending up at a new high of $68.77 and closing on the gap with \%BRENT trading at $73.81.
I waited for the dip at the end of the day, which is usual for $HP especially, and opened a new position at $73.99. $HP continued to fall with a massive selloff, people taking profit to consolidate gains. The end of day sell and buy volume dwarfed earlier moves, after opening my position, $HP fell to 73.48 before a final rally with 2 minutes left to trade gaining 11 cents to finish trading at 73.60.
Picking the bottom is always hard, sometimes with really bullish sentiment, $HP can rally much faster and higher at the end of the day. Chalk it up to my inexperience trading, but then again, catching that falling knife is a fool’s errand. I’m happy enough with my position as it is, and I look forward to tomorrows ups and downs. As long as the position continues to look good going into the coming days and weeks, I might stick with it for awhile.
My prediction is that $HP will make a new high before on or before Friday. I expect moves in the range of 1.5-2% to continue to be standard. Barring any bad news, $HP should do well, considering it is a favorite to beat earnings (practically a shoe in), so we’ll see how the market is affected by the expectation.
Here’s hoping the Oil Industry doesn’t rip my face off with a black swan event.