Accuracy Update 4/18/2018

Interestingly, Oil stalled, and BP didn’t go anywhere. Because I was unsure about the sector, I decided not to re-invest and have moved on to Service Restaurants sector. I am still keeping a close eye on the Oil sector, but it seems to be ranging for the time being. While Oil is progressing, stocks related to them such as $HP and $BP are stuggling.

Another reason I decided to leave the Oil & Energy sector for this week is that a lot of people became very positive/excited about Oil. I prefer to buy the rumor and sell the rally, once everybody starts being maximally optimistic (the Bulls win) I prefer to sell. This is I suppose, the Value Investing/Templeton approach, buy at the moment of maximum pessimism and sell at the moment of maximum optimism.

For the record, my stint from August 2017 to April 2018 in the Oil and Energy sector got me 20.1% return on my invested capital, which I am very happy with.

Original Article Follows

I was considering investing in $BP today. I decided to do an I-Ching and got #2 The Receptive, with changing lines 1 and 4.

When there is hoarfrost underfoot,
Solid ice is not far off.

Just as the light-giving power represents life, so the dark power, the shadowy, represents death. When the first hoarfrost comes in the autumn, the power of darkness and cold is just at its beginning. After these first warnings, signs of death will gradually multiply, until, in obedience to immutable laws, stark winter with its ice is here. In life it is the same. After certain scarcely noticeable signs of decay have appeared, they go on increasing until final dissolution comes. But in life precautions can be taken by heeding the first signs of decay and checking them in time.

A tied-up sack. No blame, no praise.

The dark element opens when it moves and closes when at rest. The strictest reticence is indicated here. The time is dangerous , because any degree of prominence leads either to the enmity of irresistible antagonists if one challenges them or to misconceived recognition if one is complaisant. Therefore a man ought to maintain reserve, be it in solitude or in the turmoil of the world, for there too he can hide himself so well that no one knows him.

Now I am curious.

My reading of the first part is that BP may not be a good long term investment. That couples with the second part which seems to indicate that BP is weak to antagonism from competing forces. As it stands now, $BP is trading at $42.78. I’ll be interested to see how and if this applies at all.

Here is an alternate reading:

Treading on hoarfrost, hard ice is arriving.

Every thing and every time has its Dao. The earlier one sees the signs of this Dao, the better one can act according to it. One’s degree of sight and insight decides about the direction one’s life might take. One’s ability to act in time decides if it actually will.
If you want to marry her, then go for it. But if you are not certain you want the solid ice, then now is the moment to save your ass. In both cases waiting a little bit too long can cause lots of suffering.

Enclosed in a bag. Without fault, without praise.

Don’t judge or choose about good and evil. It narrows the mind and makes it unfit to follow the time. Earth does not choose, it gives every being room for its own Dao.
Many things seem important but are not at all essential for life. Simply stop thinking about them and life comes back in all its splendor: because you keep silent. It is like watching wild animals, they come only if you are not-present, but part of them.