As I’ve written previously, one of the main drivers of the current Oil Rally(TM) is Saudi Arabia’s desire for an $80+ per barrel price ahead of their Aramco IPO. Isn’t it so convenient that the oil glut that was suppressing the price of oil has magically just disappeared? Isn’t it convenient that, in 2014 when the Middle East was in danger from ISIS the Oil Price WENT DOWN, but now everything has returned to business as usual in the causationshpere, so when the Middle East is in danger from Trump, the Oil Price GOES UP. That’s fundamentals for you.
Anyway, the latest news on the Aramco front, which looks to be a massively fixed race (which is probably why you should get in, if you can get in), is that “anonymous insiders” (dun dun duh!) have revealed the best news possible for the IPO, Aramco apparently makes more money than Apple $AAPL. That basically clues in the stock price for Aramco to be an early $174+ per share minimum.
While conveniently there was no actually pertinent info, like Saudi Reserve numbers (because those could negatively affect the market), “anonymous insiders” (dun dun duh!) were very chatty about cash flows ($52.1 Billion, $14.7 CAPEX, $13 Billion dividend – more than twice that of $XOM).
Another revelation, almost no debt. “anonymous insiders” (dun dun duh!) revealed that Aramco’s debt was something like $1.3 Billion, insignifcant when compared to $XOM which sports a whopping $37.9 Billion. According to some analysts (what-wha), Aramco spends about $4 per barrel extraced, as opposed to $XOM and $RDS-A which spend around $20.
Basically Aramco is run by magical Unicorns that shit lemon meringue and fart Patchouli and Sandalwood.
The take home is that the fix is in. The Saudi’s and OPEC want a slam dunk here, and they are doing everything in their power to make sure it happens. Barring an act of God (which is a possibility), Aramco’s IPO will be the biggest financial event of the century. A lot of people are gearing up to make a lot of money. Don’t be surprised if you see a “curse-your-sudden-but-inevitable-betrayal” when the Saudi’s end up selling a chunk to China, or Russia.