Whenever the stock market, or commodity prices move, analysts and interested parties feel compelled to “explain” why it has moved one way or another via what could be called “Overton Rationalizations”. The Overton Window is a window of acceptable discourse, and the Overton Rationalizations are the window of acceptable causation.
For instance, if the price of oil goes up, there is probably some tin-foil hat nutter who thinks it went up because the reptilian space dominion wants to bankrupt individual consumers, driving them into homelessness so that these intergalactic masters of the financial universe can harvest livers in ghetto back alleys. That’s probably not the case (who am I to know really), but one thing we can say, is that it is not within the “Overton Rationalization” window. That is, the reptilian oil price causation theory is an extreme or fringe “cause” to explain a mundane (appearing) effect (the price went up).
Cause and Effect, in order to be considered thus, must be consistent. At least statistically consistent. The market, due to certain amounts of noise and a dependence of investor sentiment, is at least in the short term semi-stochastic, so some allowances have to be made for small errors in causation.
Within the Causationsphere of Oil Prices, we have something like this:
You’d think a direct terror attack, plus the devolving situation in Libya would at least merit an uptick or two?