Jolie Rouge


all ur parentheses Я belong to me


The Oil Price Causationsphere

Whenever the stock market, or commodity prices move, analysts and interested parties feel compelled to “explain” why it has moved one way or another via what could be called “Overton Rationalizations”. The Overton Window is a window of acceptable discourse, and the Overton Rationalizations are the window of acceptable causation.

For instance, if the price of oil goes up, there is probably some tin-foil hat nutter who thinks it went up because the reptilian space dominion wants to bankrupt individual consumers, driving them into homelessness so that these intergalactic masters of the financial universe can harvest livers in ghetto back alleys. That’s probably not the case (who am I to know really), but one thing we can say, is that it is not within the “Overton Rationalization” window. That is, the reptilian oil price causation theory is an extreme or fringe “cause” to explain a mundane (appearing) effect (the price went up).

Cause and Effect, in order to be considered thus, must be consistent. At least statistically consistent. The market, due to certain amounts of noise and a dependence of investor sentiment, is at least in the short term semi-stochastic, so some allowances have to be made for small errors in causation.

Within the Causationsphere of Oil Prices, we have something like this:

Apparently, a terror attack in Libya, endangering oil production further, has a negative effect on the price?

You’d think a direct terror attack, plus the devolving situation in Libya would at least merit an uptick or two?

Russia’s Energy Minister – No Br’er Fox, don’t throw me into that Briar patch

If you remember, before the collapse of Oil Prices in 2014, the Russian Government built their entire national budget around the $80+ per barrel Oil price. In 2018, all of the sudden, they think that $80 a barrel cannot be justified. Yeah, sing me another one comrade.

What you are witnessing is masterful Kayfabe. Right now, Western Sentiment (The Face), is squarely against Russia (The Heel). Russia gets to play the reverse psychology game, by running in (even ahead of Trump) to champion a lower oil price. This is classic Sun Tzu behavior. Don’t look like you want something you want.

Wells Fargo – my new favorite bank

For a few years I’ve had an account with Wells Fargo $WFC, and I’ve been relatively happy with their service. Today I lamented that I already had a fully diversified portfolio with no cash, otherwise I would have bought their stock just to show support for them standing up to gun-grabber activists. It’s rare to see a bank do that.

$WFC just got added to my watchlist, and I’ll definitely continue giving them my business.

Multiplying any teen (11-19) by 20

Here is a quick trick to multiply a teen (11-19) by 20. Add 10 to the teen, and then multiply by 10. So if you have 14 times 20, that’s 240. Then multiply the ones part of the teen by 10 and add that, so in this case 4 times 10 is 40 + 240 is 280.

Let’s try a hard one: 17 times 20? That’s 270 + 70 = 340. That’s especially easy because 70 + 70 is 140. How about 18 times 20? Well, that’s 280 + 80. 80 + 80 is 160, add in our 200 and you get 360.

You give it a shot.

Thursday 2018-04-19 – Oil and Energy Sector Outlook – Bullish – Updates

The forces driving up oil, mostly OPEC and Saudi Arabia/Russia in particular, during earning’s season, have created a unique historical opportunity. The manic exuberance of investors is not yet at peek hysteria so I believe there is still money to be made in this sector. My currnet price prediction for oil is that it will end up at $81-$84 within the next 3 months, or come very close to that.

I predict there will be a couple of bumps in the road, but that the main drivers behind the rally are desperate to raise cash in advance of geopolitical instability. Russia in particular desperately needs to balance the negative effects of sanctions against them, and the US needs as many people as possible deeply invested in the petrodollar to try and stave off China’s attempts to supplant them.

I don’t know who will win this fight, China is far more cocky than it should be, inspite of the gross incompetence of American leadership, America has historically had a margin for stupidity, whether or not the US has pushed it too far, I don’t know.

I expect socialists in Venezuela to continue running their oil production into the ground due to the upward adjustment of ideologically pure administrators. PDVSA is proud of its mixture of ideology and production, and like the Soviet Union, it will be awhile before the shit results have a significant number of people turning on their representatives. I expect Western countries to continue to try to push Venezuela over the edge, but Russian and Chinese interference is a distinct possibility throughout South America.

I expect that the failures of $TSLA are also contributing to the rally in fossil fuels, while I have started to look positively on the company for the long term future, the short term chaos in production has dealt a serious blow to the electric car activists, and that kind of rhetoric is less likely to affect weak minded investors.

The Yijing says: #56 Lǚ, Itinerant troops: 1st Changing line: The wanderer is trivial and petty, chopping up his position and seizing calamities.